Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.362455 0.421346 0.485264 0.559597 0.643466 0.734961 0.842116
2025-05-11 0.282146 0.359263 0.449398 0.561806 0.697455 0.855048 1.051103
2025-05-18 0.209644 0.292279 0.396149 0.534665 0.712696 0.931823 1.219662
2025-05-25 0.153043 0.234341 0.344392 0.501279 0.715698 0.994577 1.380077
2025-06-01 0.118067 0.198430 0.315398 0.493142 0.750450 1.102515 1.612142
2025-06-08 0.090234 0.166957 0.287168 0.481815 0.779837 1.207874 1.854986
2025-06-15 0.073862 0.149834 0.277426 0.496479 0.849310 1.378406 2.209368
2025-06-22 0.054599 0.122902 0.246822 0.473569 0.859111 1.464070 2.452464
2025-06-29 0.041361 0.103356 0.224734 0.460913 0.883599 1.575433 2.747556
2025-07-06 0.030936 0.086214 0.203226 0.445384 0.901172 1.678327 3.041545
2025-07-13 0.025285 0.077788 0.196917 0.457063 0.968313 1.870675 3.500128
2025-07-20 0.019789 0.067753 0.184909 0.455463 1.011211 2.026975 3.915260
2025-07-27 0.015747 0.060220 0.177283 0.463077 1.076071 2.234885 4.449729
2025-08-03 0.012402 0.053204 0.169097 0.468170 1.137465 2.444751 5.010865
2025-08-10 0.008841 0.043537 0.151272 0.447542 1.143053 2.551852 5.399611
2025-08-17 0.006062 0.034753 0.132782 0.420931 1.131505 2.624904 5.733987
2025-08-24 0.004508 0.029708 0.123479 0.415608 1.167041 2.796403 6.273397
2025-08-31 0.003284 0.025115 0.113873 0.407205 1.194253 2.954321 6.802260
2025-09-07 0.002659 0.023049 0.112187 0.421090 1.278087 3.241496 7.615569
2025-09-14 0.001816 0.018753 0.100473 0.402151 1.276629 3.344015 8.062840
2025-09-21 0.001282 0.015727 0.092268 0.391923 1.296088 3.495225 8.625167
2025-09-28 0.000880 0.013018 0.083973 0.379037 1.306196 3.626220 9.156265
2025-10-05 0.000696 0.011919 0.082566 0.389748 1.383968 3.923391 10.070939